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O =u-SACS Statistical Issues and Challenges: One-, Three-, and Five-year Period EstimatesTTbMichael Beaghen U.S. Census Bureau Add slides for change over time and comparisons across countiescZcT ANew Jersey State Data Center Annual Network Meeting June 11, 2008BZB{/OverviewMulti-year Estimates Period Estimates Population Controls Tabulation geography Inflation adjustments Main Issue: Users have choices Key concepts for data users6P<P<>!Conceptualizing Period Estimates 1-year period estimates Reflect each of the 12 months equally No month given preference All months given equal weight Multi-year estimates (MYE) 3-year represents 36 month period 5-year represents 60 month period All years, months, given equal weightxZ_ZZZjZ_jv6Multi-year WeightingPool 36 or 60 months of data versus 12 months for 1-year Methodology generally same as 1-year MYE not an average of 1-year estimates7)Multi-year Estimates Population Controls* |Simple average of the population controls for the years in the multi-year period Use the most current estimates For 2005-2009, sum controls released in 2010 for 2005, 2006,& ,2009 divide by 58*Multi-year Estimates Tabulation Geography+  Town boundary changes can occur through annexations during the multi-year period Tabulate using the geography of the most recent year in the multi-year period For 2005-2009, tabulate using all interviews that were conducted in blocks that define the town in 2009 Z 9+Multi-year Estimates Inflation Adjustments, BDollar valued data items are inflation adjusted to most recent year of the period The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to compute inflation factors For 2005-2009, appropriate inflation factors are applied to reported income values for 2005, 2006,& ,2008 to adjust to 2009 constant dollars""!a#%Users have Choices which Data to UsePopulation < 20,000 5-year estimates only Population >= 20,000 and < 65,000 3-year estimates 5-year estimates Population >= 65,000 1-year estimates 3-year estimates 5-year estimatesZZ"Z"ZZ3Z""3 ?!Some Key Concepts for Data Users"" ;Reliability Versus Currencyb$,Examples from the Multi-year Estimates Study}Data collected from 1999 to 2005 for 34 test counties. 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O =u-SACS Statistical Issues and Challenges: One-, Three-, and Five-year Period EstimatesTTbMichael Beaghen U.S. Census Bureau Add slides for change over time and comparisons across countiescZcT ANew Jersey State Data Center Annual Network Meeting June 11, 2008BZB{/OverviewMulti-year Estimates Period Estimates Population Controls Tabulation geography Inflation adjustments Main Issue: Users have choices Key concepts for data users6P<P<>!Conceptualizing Period Estimates 1-year period estimates Reflect each of the 12 months equally No month given preference All months given equal weight Multi-year estimates (MYE) 3-year represents 36 month period 5-year represents 60 month period All years, months, given equal weightxZ_ZZZjZ_jv6Multi-year WeightingPool 36 or 60 months of data versus 12 months for 1-year Methodology generally same as 1-year MYE not an average of 1-year estimates7)Multi-year Estimates Population Controls* |Simple average of the population controls for the years in the multi-year period Use the most current estimates For 2005-2009, sum controls released in 2010 for 2005, 2006,& ,2009 divide by 58*Multi-year Estimates Tabulation Geography+  Town boundary changes can occur through annexations during the multi-year period Tabulate using the geography of the most recent year in the multi-year period For 2005-2009, tabulate using all interviews that were conducted in blocks that define the town in 2009 Z 9+Multi-year Estimates Inflation Adjustments, BDollar valued data items are inflation adjusted to most recent year of the period The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to compute inflation factors For 2005-2009, appropriate inflation factors are applied to reported income values for 2005, 2006,& ,2008 to adjust to 2009 constant dollars""!a#%Users have Choices which Data to UsePopulation < 20,000 5-year estimates only Population >= 20,000 and < 65,000 3-year estimates 5-year estimates Population >= 65,000 1-year estimates 3-year estimates 5-year estimatesZZ"Z"ZZ3Z""3 ?!Some Key Concepts for Data Users"" ;Reliability Versus Currencyb$,Examples from the Multi-year Estimates Study}Data collected from 1999 to 2005 for 34 test counties. Available for download on ACS web site. http://www.census.gov/acs/www6r=`Percent Poverty for Families  Sevier County, TN11 <SPercent of *!Population 5 Years and Older who Speak Spanish at Home - Lake County, IL TS x.5Subgroups Example: Family Types in Sevier County, TN_":,Overlapping vs. Non-Overlapping Time Periods A/Comparisons of Estimates of Overlapping PeriodsHard to interpret Difference determined by difference of nonoverlapping years Difference between 2008-2010 and 2007-2009 is difference between 2010 and 2007! 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Better to compare nonoverlapping periods, e.g., 2008-2010 vs. 2005-2007Z,:j'@(Compare Areas over the Same Time PeriodsZDo - compare 2005-2007 with 2005-2007 estimates Don t - compare 2005-2007 with 2007 estimates For example: Upson County GA, pop 27,597 Lake County, IL, pop 644,356&t:t:D ConclusionMYEs new product, new choices, new concepts for data users User guidelines ready for 2008 release of first MYEs Contact: michael.a.beaghen@census.govZg /F` d!e"|+},~-456789:;<>?@ + 800(  ~  s *;P@P      0< `M=`   ~  s *h=  M=  H  0޽h ? ̙33ru -"`'(@   EC^ Chart Excel.Chart.80*Microsoft Excel Chart`/ 0DTimes NewRoot EntrydO)0Q5PicturesCurrent User,SummaryInformation(@U      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDE y, IL6Subgroups Example: Family Types in Sevier County, TN Slide 15-Overlapping vs. Non-Overlapping Time Periods0Comparisons of Estimates of Overlapping Periods)Compare Areas over the Same Time Periods Conclusion  Fonts UsedDesign TemplateEmbedded OLE Servers Slide Titlesitles_totesttest_testtestagh001b$TW#)Yc-b$nHrA"nUC+b$ hM>F`[̇qCoc $ @8vw\.ʚ;V7ʚ;g4FdFd`0vppp@ g43d3d0pp p <4!d!dc20L<4ddddc20L<4ddddc20Lj0___PPT10 *___PPT9 z?  O =u-SACS Statistical Issues and Challenges: One-, Three-, and Five-year Period EstimatesTT"Michael Beaghen U.S. Census Bureau## ANew Jersey State Data Center Annual Network Meeting June 11, 2008BZB{/OverviewMulti-year Estimates Period Estimates Population Controls Tabulation geography Inflation adjustments Main Issue: Users have choices Key concepts for data users6P<P<>!Conceptualizing Period Estimates 1-year period estimates Reflect each of the 12 months equally No month given preference All months given equal weight Multi-year estimates (MYE) 3-year represents 36 month period 5-year represents 60 month period All years, months, given equal weightxZ_ZZZjZ_j6Multi-year WeightingPool 36 or 60 months of data versus 12 months for 1-year Methodology generally same as 1-year MYE not an average of 1-year estimates7)Multi-year Estimates Population Controls* |Simple average of the population controls for the years in the multi-year period Use the most current estimates For 2005-2009, sum controls released in 2010 for 2005, 2006,& ,2009 divide by 58*Multi-year Estimates Tabulation Geography+  Town boundary changes can occur through annexations during the multi-year period Tabulate using the geography of the most recent year in the multi-year period For 2005-2009, tabulate using all interviews that were conducted in blocks that define the town in 2009 Z 9+Multi-year Estimates Inflation Adjustments, BDollar valued data items are inflation adjusted to most recent year of the period The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to compute inflation factors For 2005-2009, appropriate inflation factors are applied to reported income values for 2005, 2006,& ,2008 to adjust to 2009 constant dollars""a#%Users have Choices which Data to UsePopulation < 20,000 5-year estimates only Population >= 20,000 and < 65,000 3-year estimates 5-year estimates Population >= 65,000 1-year estimates 3-year estimates 5-year estimatesZZ"Z"ZZ3Z""3 ?!Some Key Concepts for Data Users"" ;Reliability Versus Currencyb$,Examples from the Multi-year Estimates Study}Data collected from 1999 to 2005 for 34 test counties. Available for download on ACS web site. http://www.census.gov/acs/wwwg=`Percent Poverty for Families  Sevier County, TN11 <SPercent of Population 5 Years and Older who Speak Spanish at Home - Lake County, IL TS x.5Subgroups Example: Family Types in Sevier County, TN_":,Overlapping vs. Non-Overlapping Time Periods A/Comparisons of Estimates of Overlapping PeriodsHard to interpret Difference determined by difference of nonoverlapping years Difference between 2008-2010 and 2007-2009 is difference between 2010 and 2007! 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S   TH kk z    n*  K%%KKpp   T kk  @   p*  K%%KKppH  0.k ? ̙3380___PPT10.54Y ,0(  ,H , 0.k ? ̙3380___PPT10.5wZ0 ((  ^  S XK     c $  M)    H  0.k ? ̙33"0 T$(  T^ T S XK    T c $d  M)   HiddenH T 0.k ? ̙33#0 0d((  d^ d S XK    d c $j  M)    H d 0.k ? ̙33$0 h((  h^ h S XK    h c $o  M)    H h 0.k ? ̙33-0 @((  ^  S XK     c $+  M)    H  0.k ? ̙33/0 p((  ^  S XK     c $\u  M)    H  0.k ? ̙33<.0 (  ^  S XK     c $L{  M)   nSevier has enough total population for one year estimate, but may have to use MYE anyway with subpopulations. H  0.k ? ̙3370 <4(  <d < c $XK    < s *  L)    H < 0.k ? ̙33 80 D\(  Dd D c $XK    D s *< L)   F2Tabulation based on location in current geography.H D 0.k ? ̙33890 L(  Ld L c $XK    L s *  L)   r^This way we are consistent with federal funding programs using current dollars, etc. CPI-R-USH L 0.k ? ̙3360 P((  P^ P S XK    P c $  M)    H P 0.k ? ̙33:0  \((  \^ \ S XK    \ c $̠  M)    H \ 0.k ? ̙33;0 p`((  `^ ` S XK    ` c $  M)    H ` 0.k ? ̙33=0 l=(  l^ l S XK    l c $  M)   3One margin of error up or down.H l 0.k ? ̙33.<0 p~(  p^ p S XK    p c $$  M)   t`MYE lagging because they re based on older data.H p 0.k ? ̙33>0 ]U|(  |d | c $XK   I | s *,  M)   1-year represents the 12-month period. Multi-year is an extension of the the single year Reflects the characteristics of the population as collected during the month of interview for the periodH | 0.k ? ̙33?0 P4(  d  c $XK     s *v  M)    H  0.k ? ̙33@0 `((  ^  S XK     c $l  M)    H  0.k ? ̙33A0 @4(  d  c $XK     s *4  M)    H  0.k ? ̙33r0@GFH`Jd LN|0xPXR8T0|VhX|Z\ ^|` \bQd f,ikl-n1